China’s Food Insecurity & Tech Signal Taiwan War: A Delicate Balance
A Nation’s Hunger for Security. `An army marches on its stomach,' Napoleon.
The phrase `an army marches on its stomach’ is most famously attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.
Though it's unclear whether he coined it exactly in those words, the idea is widely associated with him. The sentiment reflects the importance of logistics and food supply in military success—no matter how brave or skilled soldiers are, they can't fight effectively if they're starving. And, the population tends to revolt if they can not eat.
A similar idea also appears in earlier sources. For example, Frederick the Great (King of Prussia, 18th century) and Cicero (in a more general Roman context) wrote about the importance of food to sustaining troops. But Napoleon popularized it in modern military thinking.
So while Napoleon may not have been the first to express it, he gets the credit for the memorable phrasing.
China’s Food Security Efforts
China, home to 1.4 billion people, is scrambling to ensure it can feed its population in the face of potential war. Like the biblical Joseph storing grain for famine (Genesis 41:49), China’s leaders are fortifying their reserves. A striking example is the Zhe Dai Yu Yang 60001, a 225-meter ship transformed into a floating fish farm producing 2,800 tons annually, part of a “marine bread basket” initiative. On land, since around 2023, forests have been cleared, and urban parks in cities like Chengdu—once built for billions—now grow wheat and corn. Rural enforcers, known as “rural managers,” uproot cash crops like tobacco and fill fish ponds to prioritize staples. In March 2025, China boosted its grain and oil stockpiling budget by 6.1% to $18.1 billion, signaling preparation for disrupted trade. Yet, with 157 million metric tons of grains and soybeans imported in 2024, including 80% of its soybeans, and polluted soil hampering production, self-sufficiency remains elusive, as for those facing scarcity.
Technology as a Game-Changer
In a speech to National Taiwan University students, Palmer Luckey, a tech entrepreneur who founded Anduril Industries after creating Oculus VR, highlights technology’s role in modern warfare. Drawing from his 2022 experience training Ukrainian soldiers, he saw drones costing thousands devastate Russian forces, forcing Putin’s Black Sea Fleet to retreat. China boasts the world’s largest navy and plans thousands of hypersonic missiles, with war drills like “Joint Sword” near Taiwan. Yet, Taiwan, a tech powerhouse rivaling California, is urged to build AI-driven drones and robot submarines, creating a “floating fortress.” The entrepreneur’s vision aligns with John Stuart Mill’s utilitarianism: innovation maximizes societal strength. However, China’s technological might, including AI and missile advancements, poses a formidable challenge, as Xi Jinping’s call for a military “built to fight” suggests a clash is looming.
“Luckily for us, Xi Jinping speaks a lot. Here are just a few of the things he’s said in the last decade or so:
The Chinese military should be `built to fight.’
Reunification with Taiwan is `inevitable.’
There will be a `great struggle’ with the West.
These quotations are not abstractions. They represent Xi’s genuine beliefs.” Palmer Luckey
Historical Lessons on Food and War
History warns that no nation endures war without food, a truth as old as Augustine’s reflections on empires’ fragility in City of God. Napoleonic France (1803–1815) crumbled when its blockade against Britain starved its troops, especially in Russia’s scorched fields. In World War I, Germany’s “Turnip Winter” (1916–1917) saw cities survive on 1,000 calories daily, sparking unrest that hastened defeat, as Kant might argue reason falters without sustenance. The Soviet Union’s WWII ordeal (1941–1945) saw Leningrad’s million-plus deaths from starvation, saved only by U.S. aid. Japan’s WWII collapse (1941–1945) followed Allied blockades cutting rice to 10% of pre-war levels, underscoring Mill’s point that a nation’s well-being hinges on food. These lessons suggest China’s import reliance could be its Achilles’ heel.
Taiwan’s Technological Counter
Taiwan, a beacon of innovation, must heed Ukraine’s example to deter China. The Anduril founder’s call to students—build drones, autonomous munitions, and AI systems—mirrors Psalm 127:1, where vigilance guards the city. Taiwan’s 2025 defense budget, the largest ever, includes autonomous platforms, signaling a shift toward high-tech deterrence. Yet, time is short. China’s incursions into Taiwanese airspace and naval drills show intent, as Xi’s “reunification” rhetoric grows bolder. Taiwan’s tech ecosystem, producing world-class hardware, could tip the scales.
Balancing Food and Tech for Victory
The thesis that food and technology determine the war’s victor rings true. China’s food security push and military tech buildup signal war preparations, possibly over Taiwan, but its import dependence and environmental challenges weaken its stance. Taiwan’s tech edge offers hope, but only if mobilized swiftly. Innovation and sustenance can shift the tide.
China’s Strategic Maneuvers and Taiwan’s Response
China’s Food Security Drive
China’s leaders are racing to secure food for 1.4 billion people amid fears of conflict. The transformation of the Zhe Dai Yu Yang 60001, a 225-meter bulk carrier, into a floating fish farm yielding 2,800 tons annually exemplifies the “marine bread basket” project, driven by state entities like China State Shipbuilding Corp. Since 2023, China has reversed decades of reforestation, clearing forests and converting urban spaces—like Chengdu’s $4 billion park belt—into farmland. Rural enforcers have uprooted cash crops, filled fish ponds, and seized poultry to prioritize grains, echoing Mao’s “grow grain everywhere” mantra. In March 2025, the government increased its agriculture stockpiling budget by 6.1% to $18.1 billion, fortifying reserves for potential trade disruptions. Yet, China’s 2024 import of 157 million metric tons of grains and soybeans, with 80% of soybeans from abroad, reveals its dependence. Polluted soil and water, as Gregory Copley warned in 2021, hinder self-sufficiency, making China’s goal of “absolute self-sufficiency” under the 2024 Food Security Law a daunting challenge.
Alleged Agroterrorism
Concerns about China’s intentions extend beyond its borders. In June 2025, three Chinese nationals were charged with attempting to smuggle Fusarium graminearum, a crop-destroying fungus, into the U.S., raising fears of agroterrorism. This pathogen, linked to billions in global crop losses, could devastate American wheat and rice. Since 2020, unsolicited seed shipments from China to all 50 U.S. states have fueled suspicions of a campaign to disrupt U.S. agriculture, a key supplier for China’s imports. Such actions align with Sun Tzu’s strategy of weakening an enemy’s resources pre-conflict, posing a threat to global food security.
China’s Technological and Military Might
A tech entrepreneur’s speech to National Taiwan University students, drawing from his 2022 experience in Ukraine, underscores technology’s role in modern warfare. Ukraine’s use of cheap drones to cripple Russian forces, forcing the Black Sea Fleet’s retreat, shows that scale and innovation outmatch traditional arsenals. China, however, is a technological titan, boasting the world’s largest navy and plans for thousands of hypersonic and cruise missiles by 2035, per U.S. Defense Intelligence. Its “Joint Sword” exercises and frequent airspace incursions near Taiwan signal intent, as Xi Jinping’s calls for a military “built to fight” and “reunification” with Taiwan echo ominously. China’s commercial shipyards, increasingly militarized, bolster its war machine, aiming for dominance in East Asia.
Taiwan’s Technological Counter
Taiwan, a tech superpower akin to Silicon Valley, is urged to harness its innovation to deter China. The Anduril founder, sanctioned by China for supporting Taiwan’s defense, envisions AI-driven drones, robot submarines, and autonomous munitions transforming Taiwan into a “floating fortress.” Taiwan’s 2025 defense budget, the largest in its history, includes autonomous platforms, reflecting a shift toward high-tech deterrence. Yet, as the entrepreneur warns, speed is critical—Taiwan must act before China’s preparations peak.
Historical Lessons: Food as a War Decider
History underscores that food security is as vital as weaponry, a truth Augustine might have pondered in the City of God. Napoleonic France (1803–1815) faltered when its Continental System and Russia’s scorched-earth tactics starved its armies. Germany’s WWI “Turnip Winter” (1916–1917) saw urban starvation spark unrest, undermining its war effort. The Soviet Union’s WWII siege of Leningrad (1941–1945) claimed over a million lives, with U.S. aid averting collapse. Japan’s WWII defeat (1941–1945) followed Allied blockades, slashing rice rations. These cases warn that China’s import reliance could be its downfall in a prolonged conflict.
China’s U.S. Farmland and Imports
China’s strategic reach extends to American agriculture. In 2021, Chinese investors held 383,935 acres of U.S. farmland—less than 1% of foreign-owned land—worth about $2 billion, with 195,000 acres directly controlled by 85 Chinese entities, per the USDA. Concerns about underreporting persist due to lax oversight by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States (CFIUS). In 2024, China imported $26 billion in U.S. agricultural products from January to November, including soybeans (over 60% of global trade), corn, wheat, meat, and dairy, though this was down 14% from 2023. China’s domestic soybean production meets less than 20% of demand, highlighting reliance on the U.S., its second-largest supplier after Brazil. Since the 2018 trade war, China has diversified to Brazil, Africa, and Belt and Road nations, while pushing domestic plans like the 2024–2035 cereal grain initiative and 2024–2028 smart farming, signaling a shift from U.S. dependence.
The Deciding Factors: Food and Technology
The thesis that food and technology determine the war’s victor is compelling. China’s food security efforts—floating farms, land repurposing, and stockpiling—aim to shield it from embargoes, but its import dependence and environmental challenges, as Copley notes, weaken its position. Its technological prowess, with a massive navy and missile arsenal, poses a threat, yet Taiwan’s tech ecosystem offers a counter. Inspired by Ukraine’s drone success, Taiwan’s potential to build AI-driven defenses could deter aggression, but only if acted upon swiftly. Food and those who wield technology hold the keys to victory. The China-Taiwan dynamic hinges on preparation—China fortifies its fields and fleets, while Taiwan must arm its innovators.
Conclusion
China’s aggressive food security measures and technological buildup signal preparations for a potential Taiwan conflict, but its reliance on imports and environmental constraints pose risks. Taiwan’s technological edge, if harnessed swiftly, could deter aggression, as Ukraine’s example shows. History teaches that food and technology are twin pillars of victory—China must feed its people, while Taiwan must innovate to survive. As the Anduril founder urges, Taiwan’s students must build the future, for as Sun Tzu said, “The leader who wins prepares thoroughly.” The Pacific’s fate hangs in this delicate balance.
Takeaway Key Points
China’s Food Security Push: China is aggressively expanding food production through floating farms, land repurposing, and stockpiling, likely preparing for potential conflict, but its reliance on imports and polluted land poses challenges.
Technological Arms Race: China’s massive navy and missile advancements contrast with Taiwan’s potential to leverage AI-driven drones and autonomous systems, inspired by Ukraine’s success against Russia.
Historical Precedent: Past wars show that food security is critical for victory, as seen in Napoleonic France, WWI Germany, WWII USSR, and Japan, suggesting China’s vulnerabilities could undermine its ambitions.
Taiwan’s Opportunity: Taiwan’s tech prowess, akin to Silicon Valley, could deter China through innovation, but it must act swiftly to build a “floating fortress.”
Victory Hinges on Both: The outcome of a China-Taiwan conflict may depend on balancing food security and technological superiority, with both sides racing to secure their strengths.
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